Demographic discontinuities - this continues from introduction
A look at the differing fertility rates amonst populations
Each generation only replaces itself when the fertility rate = 2.1 At this rate the population growth is zero – assuming the death rate doesn’t change; and there is no migrations. When it is higher than 2.1, the population is said to be growing. Likewise a lower than 2.1 fertility rate means there is a shrinking population.
The total fertility rate of the world was 6 up till the 1950’s.
From 1960’s to 1995 it has slowly decreased to 3.
Since 1996, the fertility rate has continued to decrease and today it is 2.6.
The fertility rate in Asia (excluding China) is 2.8
In Europe it is 1.4. From the point of view of demographers, Europe is committing suicide.
[Fertility rate figures sourced: U.S. Population Reference Bureau data sheet 2008]
A comparative look at population increases for the years 2000 to 2005
Region 2000 2005
(millions)
Asia 3680 3917 increased 237 million
North America 316 332 increased 16 million
Africa 796 888 increased 92 million
Europe* 728 725 decreased – 3 million
Europe with a fertility rate of 1.4 makes up for its declining population through immigration. As a result, Europe today has the highest number of immigrants in the world with 70 million. Over half of these immigrants are muslims originating mostly from Asia.
The north Americans with a fertility rate 2.1 had achieved 16 million population increase with the help of immigration. USA and Canada have a combined immigration total of 45 million; and are mostly Hispanic and christian.
[sourced: 4th World Migration Report, International Organization for Migration 2008]
The 10 countries contributing to most of the world’s population growth over the next 30 years – with fertility rates (year 2008) in parenthesis below:
India (2.8) | China (1.6) | Pakistan (4.1) | Nigeria (5.9) | Ethiopia (5.3)
Indonesia (2.6) | USA (2.1) | Bangladesh (2.7) | Zaire (5.3) | Iran (2.1)
[above rankings are left-to-right in descending order: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 2008 report]
Explaining China’s 1.6 fertility rate
This is the result of China’s family planning policy, as it has helped prevent 400 million births in the last 50 years ending 2005. These 400 million births if not prevented would have postponed China’s drive “by two generations” to build its rent economy. [Minister Zhang in charge of Family Planning, Xinhua 03 may 2006]
United Nations estimates for 2050 world population
If UN estimates are correct, and the world fertility rate continues to decline for the next 40 years to a level of 2.1 – then by the year 2050 total world population is expected to be around 9 billion people. If the fertility rate rises back to 3 (although improbable,) the projected world population by the year 2050 will reach 11 billion.
Whatever the prediction above, the relationship of a rising population to fixed material resources (e.g. farm land, water, and carbon fuels) and ecosystems – is still one of our most crucial problems. Back in the 1950’s, it was a more serious concern that had transfixed research academies – because the world fertility rate was 6.
As a result, investing in population control became a priority. As a response, family planing programs were initiated throughout many third world countries, and today we are witness to their achiements*.
This year (2009) for the first time in history – one sixth of humanity is expected to suffer from hunger. That is over 1 billion people will not find the means to feed themselves in the developing world. If this year’s data confirms this forecast, it will be an incredible 10% increase on last year’s 915 million. [UN Food & Agricultural Organization FAO 2009 estimate] These numbers unfortunately question the value of the UN Millennium Development Goals.
Babies born:
For the year 2008, there was an estimated 138 million babies born worldwide.*
China had roughly 16 million babies born last year, whilst India had 27 million. Hence one baby in three born today is between these two countries
To simplify the numbers: for every 10 000 babies born last year in the world, there are approximately:
[for every 10 000 babies] [total babies born* 2008]
India 1950 babies 27 008 000
China 1160 16 029 000
USA 310 4 354 000
Japan 80 1 114 000
Saudi Arabia 60 828 000
France 57 788 000
Greece 8 113 000
Demographic discontinuities
Within the next 10 years – and for the first time in human history, there will be more people 65 years and over – than children under 5 years old.
Today in Greece the % of population: less than 5 years old = 14%
more than 65 years old = 19%
[US Institute for Aging 2009 report]
Japan, Germany, Italy and Russia already have negative rates of population growth, which means their populations are shrinking. The structures of their communities & high cost of living, exuberant health expenses, insecure job environment, chemicals in the food chains & lower sperm counts – all cumulate together and is making it difficult for families to have children.
Asia has on a whole a more youthful population than the West. China despite its future zero population growth, has no problem with its future source of workers. Considering that China has close to 900 million people living an agricultural life, what China has accomplished with their relative 30 year double digit economic growth – was done with a population of no more than 300 million.
The most notable recent statistic that caught my eye today in regards to social change:
In the USA (2007) – nearly 40% of all child births were from unmarried mothers.* In other words, in 2007 alone there were 1 740 000* newly born US babies (less than one year old) without a married father.
This figure increased by more than 25% from 2002.
* [40% of total US born babies 4 354 000 for 2007]
*
released by US National Center for Health Statistics 2009