Before discussing a number of socioeconomic and religious trends – it was suggested that some key world demographic numbers be brought to our attention.
This is necessary because changing demographics is one of the determinants for long-term shifts in economic and political power. On a whole, it alters a number of important international equations.
A look at global demographic trends:
Currently the world’s population is about 6.8 billion people.
The current growth rate is 1.3% and equates to around 77 million people per year.
The Total Fertility Rate of the world’s population is 2.6. (the fertility rate is the average number of children born per mother)
Today China accounts for roughly 25% of the world’s population. India has 22% and developing Asia roughly 13%, Japan has around 2%, Africa 15%, Europe 9%, and the whole American continent 14%.
There are 2 parameters that have a bearing on world population growth:
- the death rate per 1000 people
- the total fertility rate as a percentage (the average number of children born per mother as a percentge per thousand)
When you examine the last 200 year history of population growth, the first parameter that stands out is the decline in death rates – simply because in recent history there were advances in public health, better access to hospitals, immunization, and improved sanitation, et cetera. As socioeconomic factors improved in the industrialized countries – and with better standards of living & leisure time, we then see a decline in the fertility rate parameter. i.e. lower birth rates together with an increase in migratory waves of populations.
The overall growth rate in world population has been slowing since the 1960’s. This is because of the clear directional change in marriage rates, fertility, mortality and life expectancy rates worldwide. Taken together they have a direct impact on family sizes and longevity in various countries.
To illustrate this more clearly, the world renown statistician Hans Rosling in the video below brilliantly explains the changing social and economic patterns on family size since the 1960’s.
Rosling’s 2006 California TED talk on life expectancy is considered one of the best. For more on TED talks click here.